Current Research Working Papers

A Resiliency Based Approach to Crisis Preparedness 
CP is currently practiced almost exclusively using “Predict and Prepare’ protocols. But most crises, especially the most serious crises are unforeseen; many are unforeseeable.

An alternative approach develops skills, practices and structural characteristics to deal with the unexpected. Resiliency as such not only dramatically improves the ability to deal with the unforeseen, but also broadens the range of what can be foreseen, and even paints a path from crisis to creative opportunity.

Research Articles 1996-2004

“The Power of Moral Purpose: Sandler O’Neill & Partners in the Aftermath of September 11, 2001” Organizational Development Journal (Dec-04)

“Success under Adversity: Differentiating Leaders from Laggards during Hard Times in the Printing Industry” with Sandy Rothenberg, Rochester Institute of Technology Printing Industry Center (Oct-04)
“Moral purpose and organizational resilience: Sandler O’Neill & Partners in the aftermath of September 11, 2001” with Marc Maltz and Larry Hirschhorn. In D. Nagao (Ed.) AoM BEST PAPERS 2003, Omnipress: Madison, WI, (Sep-03)

“Identity maintenance and adaptation: a multilevel analysis of response to loss.” In B.M. Staw and R.M. Sutton (Eds.) Research in Organizational Behavior Vol. 21:247-294 Greenwich, CT: JAI Press (1999) x

“Organizational loss.” In B. Keys and L.N. Dosier (Eds.) AoM BEST PAPERS 1997, pp. 264-68, Omnipress: Madison, WI (Sep-97)

Research Summaries/Popular Articles

“Empresarialismoy Resiliencia,” Gestion: Buenos Aires, Argentina (Jun-02)

Presentations

Research Presentations

AoM (New Orleans; 08-Aug-04) The Role of Moral Purpose in Sandler O’Neil’s Post-9/11 recovery

National Science Foundation/NASA Conference on Organization Design (New York University, June 5, 2004) Resilience as a Strategy to Secure Safety for NASA’s Next Generation Launch Technology (NGLT) Program. Event sponsored by the NSF’s Innovation and Organization Change Program
Systems Thinking in Management 3rd International Conference Session on Sustainability (Philadelphia; 22-May-04) Beyond traditional systems thinking: Resilience as a strategy for security and sustainability.

Rochester Institute of Technology Printing Industry Center (Rochester; 5-Nov-03)Resilience in the Printing Industry.
Organizational Dynamics Keynote speech for the New Students Orientation: (Philadelphia, 13-Sep-03) The Art and Science of Organization: Resilience and Moral Purpose.
AoM Best Paper Award, Organizational Development and Change (Seattle, Aug-03). Organizational Resilience and Moral Purpose: Sandler O’Neill Also presented at Case Western Institute Organizational Behavior Department (Cleveland, Nov-03)
Keynote speech for Universidad de San Andrés conference: “Oportunidades en la crisis” (Buenos Aires, Argentina, April 11, 2002) Entrepreneurship, Crisis, and Resilience.
University of Virginia (Charlottesville, VA February 18, 2002) Individual and Organizational Resilience.

Current Research Working Papers

Riding the Waves: Seeing and Seizing Opportunity in the Midst of Systemic Sea Change

Crisis Preparedness as currently practiced entails expensive, tiresome protocols one hopes one never needs to enact; in contrast, a resiliency approach offers a means for understanding and analyzing changes, trends and vulnerabilities, nearly all of which suggest opportunities every bit as great as the corresponding dangers.

This paper lays out a protocol for identifying and developing such opportunities with specific crisis/ opportunity scenario examples

Research Articles 2009-2012

“Creating a Career” w Patricia McInerney (American Creativity Association Innovation by Design proceedings Oct-12)

“Corporate Practices that Inhibit and Drive Innovation for Sustainability” with Alan Barstow, Steven Finn, Frank Nuessle (Eastern AoM 49th Proceedings May-12)

Other Publications / Popular Press

Finding Connectedness in Buenos Aires: Argentine Tango as Antidote to the Human Condition (OD, Sep-04)

Presentations

Research Presentations

American Creativity Association Innovation by Design (Philadelphia 22-Sep-12) “Creating a Career” with Patricia McInerney
EasternAoM (Phila 10-May-12) Corporate Practices that Inhibit and Drive Innovation for Sustainability with Alan Barstow, Steven Finn

Improvisation in Management, 2nd Conference, INSEAD (Fontainebleau, France; 8-Jul-04) Organizational Leadership Lessons from the Improvisational Arts with P.L. McLeod

Research Books

“The 1986 Pennsylvania New Firms Study,” with Paul D. Reynolds, Appalachian Regional Commission: Washington, DC (Jan-87)

• Volume 1: Executive Summary, State of New Firms in Pennsylvania (43 p)
• Vol 2: New Firm Contributions to Pennsylvania (138 p)
• Vol 3: Enterprise Development companies compared with typical  New Firms (83 p)
• Vol 4: Methodological appendix (68 p)

Research Articles 2005-2008

“Analysis of S Corp ESOP Legislation Benefits and Costs” with Michael Knoll, University of Pennsylvania Law School (PSC, Aug-07)

“Effects of ESOP Adoption and Employee Ownership: Thirty Years of Research and Experience” (PSC, Jan-07). As of Dec 2011, this was the most downloaded paper in the history of the Penn Scholarly Commons.

“Quantification of the Benefits and Costs of ESOPs and Employee Ownership”, (OD, Aug -06)

Presentations

Schools throughout the US (2008-12): Critical Thinking and Reasoning: How to Know what to Believe, How to Question, and how to analyze authoritative claims
Beyster Fellowship Symposium (La Jolla, CA, Dec 9 & 10, 2011): The Employee Ownership Research Bibliographic Database and the Curriculum Library on Employee Ownership
League of Women Voters, San Diego, CA, 1-Jul-11): Democracy In Crisis
Beyster Fellowship (La Jolla, CA, June 28, 30, 2011): Conducting an Interdisciplinary Literature Review; Publishing Interdisciplinary Research
University of DC Law School Washington, DC, 18- Jan-10); US Elections: They’re Not Just Broken, They’re Fixed
Beyster Fellowship (La Jolla, CA, June 28, 2010): Effects of ESOP adoption in the US and how ESOPs deal with adversity
Employee-Owned S Corporations of America National Meeting (Washington DC, July 29, 2008): S Corp ESOP Legislation Benefits and Costs 
The CASE Association (Providence, RI, 12-May-04) Cases — Startup Marketing Strategy for Vegetales Cortados and Mastitis at Lácteos Pacificos. Best Business Teaching Cases Forum.

Research Books

Book meticulously explores the extensive “anomalies” in the 2004 US presidential election results. Employing a wide variety of election fraud forensic tools, we estimate extent and impact of fraud. Independently, we examine alternative indicators of how people actually voted including telephone polls, exit polls, surveys, vote change analysis, comparisons/ correlations with past and down-ticket elections. We conclude that had votes been counted as cast, John Kerry would have won the electoral and popular vote, convincingly. We develop the concept of “within precinct disparity (WPD)”- i.e., the difference between the exit poll results and reported vote tallies in the sample precincts used by the pollsters, and show that wide WPDs are consistent with explanations of fraud, but irreconcilable with other posited explanations.
    The book documents contemporary methods of election fraud, especially the carte blanche with which “results” can be produced on electronic voting machines, and evidence that reported results differed substantially and in outcome changing ways in 2000 and 2002
    We also explain exit polls and the high rate of confidence they enjoy, so much that they are routinely used to verify the accuracy of elections in developing democracies, ironically at the same time they were dismissed in the US. 
    Finally, the book documents failure and cooptation of the press and Democratic Party leaders. Though censored in the media, the book was widely praised by leading politic scientists, pollsters, statisticians and media scholars.

Research Articles

Publication, Presentation Abbreviations:
AoM: Academy of Management. AoM presentations refer to the Academy’s large international annual meeting held each August. 
Avina: Avina Foundation, Panama City, Panama
EI: Election Integrity, Columbus, Ohio
MIT:  Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Cambridge, Massachusetts
OD: Organizational Dynamics Program (School of Arts & Sciences), University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
PSC: Penn Scholarly Commons, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
w: with for joint author/presenter

Research Articles 2009-2012

“Exit polls still reliable where votes are cast on paper and counted manually in public view” (EI, Jan-11)

“Did California Voters Really Ratify Prop 8?” (EI, Aug-09)

Research Articles 2005-2008

“Results from the Kentucky Democratic Primary Election Verification Exit Poll” with Ken Warren (EI, May-08)

“Election Results from Notamerica” (EI, Feb-08). How US election results would be understood if they were from some other country, i.e., not America

“Hillary Clinton awarded 2008 New Hampshire Democratic primary despite apparent eight percentage point defeat” (EI, Jan-08)

“Is the US a Democracy?” (EI, Feb-07). How the US rates on standard measures of democratic practice.

“Results from the First Election Verification Exit Poll” with Ken Warren, Stephanie Singer (EI, Dec-06)

“Polling for Errors? Do Pre-Election Telephone Polls Track–and Legitimize–Corrupted Election Tallies through Flawed Methodologies? An Analysis of the 2004 US Presidential Election and the Pre-Election Polls”(OD, Aug-05)

“An Examination of Exit Poll Accuracy and Discrepancies with Official Counts in U.S. Elections” (OD, Apr-05). Historical accuracy of exit poll survey results and explanations for discrepancies.

“Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Poll Discrepancies“, with 10 co-authors, mostly statisticians, (US Count Votes: Salt Lake City, UT 23-Mar-05)
“Exit Poll Report Suggests a Corrupted Election (despite what you may have heard)” with Josh Mitteldorf. In These Times (Feb-05). Most extensive comments and most hits of any article in the publication’s history.
“Response to Mitofsky-Edison Report“ with 10 co-authors, mostly statisticians (US Count Votes Jan-05)
“Hypotheses for Explaining the Exit Poll-Official Count Discrepancy in the 2004 US Presidential Election” (OD, 04-Jan-05). Used as the basis for the US Congressional Report, “Preserving Democracy: What Went Wrong in Ohio (Status Report of the House Judiciary Committee, 05-Jan-05)

Research Articles 1996-2004

“The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy”, Organizational Dynamics (29-Dec-04). Observes a large, unexplained discrepancy between exit poll survey results and the official count in the 2004 Presidential Election. Widely read around the world. First draft generated so much traffic that it brought down both Penn and Applied Research servers in November 2004.

Presentations

West Chester University(West Chester, PA; 12-Jan-12) Polling Accuracy and Election Integrity

Research Books

“The 1986 Pennsylvania New Firms Study,”with Paul D. Reynolds, Appalachian Regional Commission: Washington, DC (Jan-87)

Research Articles 2005-2008

“Starting a business in Latin America” Chap 7 in Jauhari & Griffy Brown (eds.) Women, Technology and Entrepreneurship: Global Case Studies p. 151-170 (Dec-08)

Notes to a friend who is planning to start a business (Wharton Press: Philadelphia, 1988). Problems of marketing, financing and managing a start-up firm